J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli has dialed back his forecast for a recession in 2025 to "below 50%," according to a report shared with MarketWatch on Tuesday. Feroli also pushed ...

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components. This tool is intended ...

Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that ...

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We ...

This blog uses a Phillips curve approach to separate inflation’s signal or trend, driven by inflation expectations and the output gap, from noise or the fleeting factors that come and go.

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Euro zone consumers raised their inflation expectations in April but kept a steady view on price growth further out, highlighting elevated uncertainty amid a global trade war ...

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials are focused on keeping long-run inflation expectations stable as businesses and consumers anticipate prices to rise in ...

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials are focused on keeping long-run inflation expectations stable as businesses and consumers anticipate prices to rise in the ...

Simplying a lot, the standard view since Volcker has been to take the Phillips curve and add in the monetarist view of inflation expectations. As Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler put it ...