Unemployment claims, a critical leading indicator of the job market, increased with weekly claims up to 248k vs. expectations ...

This blog uses a Phillips curve approach to separate inflation’s signal or trend, driven by inflation expectations and the output gap, from noise or the fleeting factors that come and go.

Simplying a lot, the standard view since Volcker has been to take the Phillips curve and add in the monetarist view of inflation expectations. As Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler put it ...

The Phillips curve-based view of the inflationary process incorporates three key elements: inflation expectations, economic slack and supply shocks. A central insight is that an overheating ...

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We ...

Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that ...

After reaching a high of $81/bbl on Jan. 15, the spot price of WTI crude fell sharply in April to below $60/bbl, the lowest ...

can explain much of the inflation surge and subsequent disinflation when viewed through the lens of an expectations-augmented Phillips curve, both in the U.S. and abroad. New policy frameworks are ...

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials are focused on keeping long-run inflation expectations stable as businesses and consumers anticipate prices to rise in ...

U.S. consumers are becoming increasingly worried that tariffs will lead to higher inflation, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday. The index of consumer sentiment dropped ...

The dollar recovered from early losses on Friday and moved higher after the University of Michigan US May inflation expectations unexpectedly rose, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Also ...

The outlook for price changes also moved in the wrong direction. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 7.3% from 6.5% last month, while long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.6% from ...