when inflation expectations have been well anchored, rises in inflation have tended to coincide with stronger economic activity and higher stock prices. According to the Phillips curve, improved ...

Provided that the Phillips curve remains stable with well-anchored inflation expectations, the fitted curve supports the idea that a relatively small increase in labor market slack can bring inflation ...

This post offers a framework for thinking about the effect of tariffs on major asset class returns by estimating asset ...

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents ...

The disaggregated structure of the model improves on the forecasting performance of a standard one-equation Phillips curve ... increase in headline inflation and 30 percent of the increase in core.

The Phillips curve-based view of the inflationary process incorporates three key elements: inflation expectations, economic slack and supply shocks. A central insight is that an overheating ...

Ok, not only does the thinking vandalize what inflation is (shrinkage ... for the Wall Street Journal that “The expectations-augmented Phillips curve has been the workhorse framework for ...

If unemployment does end up rising, people could buy less, which should – in theory – push prices down. In economics, there’s ...

Jason Furman errs in relying on a supposed Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment in his op-ed “The Fed Can Take Its Time Taming Inflation” (June 17). A plot of inflation ...

And there’s this idea in economics that the two things — unemployment and price growth, inflation — are linked. It’s what’s known as the Phillips curve. Economist A.W. Phillips came up w ...

In June 2022, U.S. inflation rates reached 40-year highs. During the following two years, ‘immaculate disinflation’ saw both the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures ...