For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ...

We use the best available national and state level polling data, and factor how citizens in each state voted in the last two presidential elections, to calculate whom voters currently favor in the ...

The table below sets out the results in 2015 and in the 2017 general election in this constituency. open image in gallery In order to calculate the swing between 2015 and 2017, we add -6.3 to +5.9 ...

The calculator models election results based on one of the oldest and most widely used methods of predicting elections — by applying a uniform national swing to the margins in individual seats.

The calculator has been pre-loaded with the two-party preferred results from the 2014 election. (By-election figures have been used for Northcote.) All you have to do is enter your estimate of the ...

A problem with the formula Boston’s election department used to calculate and schedule ballot deliveries to polling locations led to the ballot shortages reported on Election Day, Boston Mayor ...

The seat calculator is a rough way of converting percentage support ... So this is a crude model - in reality every seat is unique. For past elections, it's also important to remember that only the ...